India’s Festive AdEx Set to Soar by 10–12% This Year

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India’s festive advertising expenditure (AdEx) is projected to rise 10–12% in 2025, fueled by GST rationalization and robust consumer sentiment. The shift to simplified tax slabs—5%, 18%, and a 40% rate for luxury and sin goods—takes effect on September 22, perfectly timed ahead of Diwali and other key holidays.

Industry voices anticipate this grown‑up festive season will favor performance-driven campaign models. “Large categories like FMCG, durables, and BFSI are leaning in to defend market share, while discretionary sectors are surgical with spends,” says Amita Srivastava, SVP at Carat India. Brands are pivoting from broad reach to sharper ROI and attention-based metrics.

Innovative formats are commanding real spend this season. Connected TV (CTV), retail media networks (e.g., Flipkart, Reliance Smart), influencer commerce, AI-driven creative versioning, and shoppable ads are emerging as core channels. Discretionary players are shifting creatives overnight to match hyper-local language, offers, or regional tastes.

Not all is plain sailing—marketers are watching headwinds like soaring gold prices, inflation, and geopolitical tensions. However, optimism is backed by data: online festive sales are expected to spike by 27%, exceeding ₹1.2 lakh crore, with quick commerce taking a 12% slice.

As campaigns shift from noise to precision, this festive season signals India’s advertising pivot—from scale to smart—laying groundwork for momentum well beyond Diwali.