Trump’s visa fee hike threatens India–US travel market

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The India–US travel corridor, long considered a steady growth market for airlines, is facing disruption following the Trump administration’s latest policy shifts.

On Friday, Washington announced that employers must now pay a $100,000 fee for each new H-1B visa application. With Indians holding nearly 75% of the 85,000 visas issued annually, the move is expected to discourage professional travel and reduce family visits. Tour operators warn of a sharp long-term decline once the initial rush ahead of the fee deadline subsides.

The visa curbs come on the heels of 50% tariffs on Indian exports, straining trade ties further. Aviation data from Cirium shows that this January, airlines will operate 27% fewer seats on India–US routes compared with last year. Air India, in particular, is reducing services from 444 flights to 278, suspending its Washington route as planes undergo retrofit.

Middle Eastern carriers like Emirates and Qatar Airways, which connect Indian passengers to US cities via hubs in Dubai and Doha, are also reporting reduced traffic. Added complexities — from US carriers avoiding Russian airspace to Air India’s continued inability to use Pakistani airspace — have raised costs of direct operations.

The impact is already visible. According to the US Commerce Department, Indian arrivals to America fell 15% in August, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Students and visiting families have cut back on trips, and airlines warn of a “structural change” in what was once seen as an evergreen long-haul market.

If sustained, the decline could reshape travel and tourism flows between the two countries, undercutting a vital aviation and cultural bridge that has historically linked India and the US.