Indonesia and South Africa Target Recovery of Lost Market Share in Indian Coal Market

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Indonesia and South Africa, two major exporters of thermal coal, are strategically aiming to increase their supplies to India, a pivotal market for the fuel. Recent years have witnessed a decline in their market share in India due to shifts in trade routes and increased competition from other coal-exporting countries like the United States, Russia, and Australia.

Given the diminishing demand for coal in Europe and geopolitical concerns reshaping trade dynamics, both Indonesia and South Africa are now focused on regaining their foothold in the Indian market. South Africa, leveraging its low-sulfur, high-calorific value coal, sees the Indian market, particularly in steel production, as a significant opportunity. The country aims to boost its supply to India, capitalizing on favorable market conditions.

In the wake of geopolitical tensions and altered trade patterns, South Africa redirected its coal supplies from Europe to India, while Indonesia faced stiff competition from Australia in the Chinese market. Looking ahead, South Africa anticipates supplying 60 million metric tons to India by March 2025, signaling its commitment to regain lost market share.

Similarly, Indonesia remains optimistic about its prospects in the Indian market, projecting to supply approximately 110 million tons of coal to India in 2024, a notable increase from previous years. Despite growing domestic demand, Indonesia expects strong demand from India, reflecting the country’s resilience and consistent appetite for Indonesian coal.

With Indonesia eyeing record coal output this year, both countries are strategically positioning themselves to capitalize on India’s steady demand for thermal coal. The concerted efforts of Indonesia and South Africa underscore their determination to reassert their dominance in the Indian coal market amidst evolving global trade dynamics.