Philippine Finance Secretary Foresees No Rate Hike Amid Inflation Decline

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Philippine Finance Secretary Ralph Recto stated on Thursday that he does not anticipate interest rates to increase as inflation is showing signs of easing, suggesting the possibility of rate decreases in the latter part of the year.

“I don’t expect a future rate hike because inflation is going down … I think our policy rates today are high enough,” Recto remarked.

The Philippine central bank is scheduled to convene its first rate-setting meeting of the year on Feb. 15. Many economists speculate that the bank has concluded its rate hikes in the ongoing tightening cycle.

In January, annual inflation slowed to 2.8%, marking its slowest pace in over three years, compared to 3.9% in December. This marks the second consecutive month where the rate of price increases has remained within the central bank’s target range of 2.0% to 4.0%.

While the easing inflationary pressures are favorable for the consumption-driven economy, Recto also noted the necessity of adjusting this year’s growth target of 6.5%-7.5% to a “more realistic” figure, without specifying.

The Philippine economy expanded by 5.6% in 2023, falling short of the government’s growth goal of 6.0% to 7.0% for that year.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has raised its benchmark rate by a total of 450 basis points since May 2022 to curb inflation, including an off-cycle hike in October. However, rates remained unchanged at the final two meetings in 2023.

Recto, as the government’s representative to the BSP’s monetary board, suggested that the timing of potential rate cuts might align with the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is anticipated to commence rate reductions this year.

“The key is what happens in the Fed. Are they going to start reducing rates? If they do, then possibly, we can start reducing rates,” Recto explained.