ECB Suggests Potential Rate Cut in June Amid Lowered Inflation Forecast

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The European Central Bank (ECB) has hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in June, citing a revised downward inflation forecast for 2024 and beyond. Despite maintaining its benchmark deposit rate at 4 percent, the ECB released a statement on Thursday indicating a reduction in its eurozone inflation projection from 2.7 percent to 2.3 percent for the current year. Additionally, it anticipates inflation to decline to 1.9 percent by summer 2025, persisting until the end of 2026.

ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested during a press conference that a rate cut could be considered in June pending further confirmation from economic data, particularly wage data. She emphasized the need for additional evidence and data to bolster confidence in achieving inflation targets.”We are making progress towards our inflation target and gaining confidence,” Lagarde stated. “However, further evidence is required. We anticipate gaining more clarity in April, with substantial insights expected in June.”

Mark Wall, Chief European Economist at Deutsche Bank, noted that the ECB’s adjustments to staff forecasts and changes in the statement indicate a gradual approach towards a potential rate cut. Wall emphasized the ECB’s method of assessing data on a meeting-by-meeting basis, emphasizing its dependence on incoming economic indicators.

Michael Field, European Market Strategist at Morningstar, highlighted the delicate balancing act facing the ECB amidst economic uncertainty. He emphasized the need to address the risk of resurgent inflation while prioritizing measures to prevent a prolonged recession. June is viewed as a reasonable timeframe for the ECB’s first interest rate cut, considering these factors.