Economists Forecast Continued Inflation Decline Despite Stable September Figures

The latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals that the consumer price index remained unchanged in September, holding steady at 3.7% compared to the same period last year. Although the figures mirror those of August, economists anticipate a gradual easing of price pressures in the months ahead.

Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, emphasized the likelihood of inflation decreasing based on various economic data. Despite improvements, experts warn that it will take time for inflation to reach the Federal Reserve’s desired long-term rate of 2%, not projected until 2026.

Notably, the cost of gasoline, a significant contributor to inflation, rose by 2.1% in September, although this increase was less pronounced than in the previous month. Housing inflation, which constitutes a significant portion of the core CPI, continues to decrease and is expected to persist through the summer of the following year.

Moreover, various categories, such as motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, and new vehicles, have experienced notable increases in the past year.

Experts attribute the recent easing of inflationary pressures to various factors, including the stabilization of energy prices and the cooling of the labor market, indicated by a decline in average wage growth to 4.4% in September, from its peak of 9.3% in January 2022.

Despite the overall positive outlook, economists caution that certain global events, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict and potential United Auto Workers strikes, could still exert upward pressure on inflation.