Dollar Edges Down, Ether’s 2-Month High Fuels Crypto Rally

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The dollar wavered on Tuesday as investors maintained their expectations for Federal Reserve monetary easing this year. Meanwhile, ether experienced its largest two-day gain in nearly two years, sparking a broader cryptocurrency rally, with bitcoin approaching a record high amid speculation over U.S. spot exchange-traded funds tracking the world’s second-biggest cryptocurrency.

The euro rose slightly by 0.12% to $1.0869. Investors are keenly awaiting Thursday’s data releases, including the European Central Bank’s (ECB) negotiated wage tracker and the eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which could shed light on the monetary cycle in the euro area.

With minimal U.S. economic data expected this week, investors are turning their attention to upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Money markets are currently pricing in 42 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cuts in 2024, indicating a 68% chance of a second rate cut by December. This marks a reduction from the two cuts previously fully priced in before recent hawkish remarks from central bank officials. Similarly, markets are now betting on 63 bps of ECB rate cuts in 2024, down from around 73 bps in mid-May.

Analysts noted Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s dollar-positive comments, where he indicated that the Fed’s benchmark rate would likely stabilize at a higher rate than in the past decade, adding further complexity to the dollar’s trajectory.