Middle East aviation market poised for strong growth in the next decade

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According to a recent study by Oliver Wyman, the Middle East remains one of the fastest-growing aviation markets globally, with the regional fleet expected to expand by 5.1% annually over the next ten years. The study, titled “Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2023-2033,” also revealed that the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) sector in the region would experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9% during the same period.

While the Middle East aviation market heavily relies on international travel, which has been slower to recover compared to domestic travel after the COVID-19 pandemic, the region did benefit from air traffic associated with events like the World Cup held in Qatar last year.

André Martins, Partner at Oliver Wyman in India, the Middle East, and Africa, emphasized the vital role the aviation industry plays in the region’s growth. Established players are constantly adapting their commercial models and operations to prepare for future waves of growth. Additionally, new entrants are entering the market, and countries are enhancing their offerings throughout the entire value chain, positioning the Middle East as an increasingly important player on the global aviation stage.

The Middle East’s share of the global fleet is predicted to grow from 4.9% in 2023 to 6% in 2033. In contrast, the global fleet is expected to expand by one-third, surpassing 36,000 aircraft by 2033. The report also highlighted the anticipated record number of aircraft deliveries over the next decade, despite current supply chain constraints.

The growth of the Middle East fleet in the coming years will be primarily driven by the addition of narrowbody aircraft. Traditionally, the Middle Eastern fleet has been dominated by widebody aircraft. However, narrowbody aircraft are projected to increase their share to 48% of the fleet, up from 39%, while widebody aircraft will decline to 48% from 56%.

The findings of the report paint a positive picture for the Middle East aviation industry, showcasing its potential for significant growth in the next decade. With a focus on adapting commercial models, improving operations, and attracting new players, the region is well-positioned to continue its ascent in the global aviation landscape.