New Zealand Grows Weary of its Liberal Government

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Three years ago, New Zealanders were enjoying a contented seclusion in the lead-up to their general election. Shielded by closed borders from the chaos of the COVID-19 pandemic abroad, they showed their appreciation for then-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern by granting her Labour Party the country’s first-ever majority under New Zealand’s proportional representation system. However, the initial gratitude has faded, and Ms. Ardern’s January resignation, accompanied by a significant decline in her approval ratings, has left her successor, Chris Hipkins, struggling to capture the same charm. The impending October 14th elections are anticipated to bring in a coalition of right-wing parties, signaling a probable ousting of the center-left government.

Current polls indicate a potential halving of support for the Labour Party, which had garnered around 50% of the vote in 2020, marking its most successful outcome in over seven decades. Predictions suggest that Mr. Hipkins, a former health minister, is set to secure approximately 26% of the vote, while the center-right National Party, led by former Air New Zealand chief Christopher Luxon, is expected to receive 36%. Despite falling significantly short of a majority, the National Party will likely need to collaborate with at least one, and possibly two, hard-right parties that are campaigning against woke ideologies and the increasing use of the Maori language in public life. Such a political shift would represent a stark departure from Ms. Ardern’s inclusive and compassionate political approach.

Labour, to a certain extent, has fallen victim to the heightened expectations that Ms. Ardern had engendered. Although she adeptly navigated New Zealand through crises, she fell short of fulfilling her promise of transformative change. Despite her 2017 pledge to tackle poverty and housing affordability, life has become more challenging for many New Zealanders. Soaring house prices, inflation eroding wages, and escalating interest rates have compounded the difficulties, leading to widespread dissatisfaction. Mr. Hipkins attempted to regain support by discarding policies with a perceived “woke” character and focusing on more practical initiatives like increasing child-care subsidies and reducing public transport costs. However, his tenure has been marred by several scandals, including the dismissal or resignation of five ministers due to misconduct.

Mr. Luxon and the National Party have pledged tax cuts, a crackdown on criminal gangs, and reductions in the public sector to steer the country back on track. Despite these promises, New Zealanders remain skeptical of the party’s ability to address their concerns effectively. With both Labour and National expected to receive their lowest-ever share of the vote, minor parties on both ends of the political spectrum are gaining momentum, buoyed by New Zealand’s proportional representation system.

For a majority in the country’s unicameral parliament, Mr. Luxon would likely need the support of the growing libertarian party ACT and potentially New Zealand First, led by the 78-year-old Winston Peters. While the two smaller parties hold differing views, they both appeal to disillusioned conservatives by promising to combat crime and push back against the perceived “Maorification” of New Zealand. Although the prospect of a right-wing coalition has sparked concerns, New Zealand’s electoral system tends to maintain a relatively centrist political landscape, minimizing the influence of smaller parties that fail to act as reliable partners in governance. While Ms. Ardern introduced a softer approach to politics, current indications suggest that New Zealanders are favoring a more assertive and spirited political stance.