Japan Emerges as a More Approachable Ally to South-East Asia than America or China

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Asian geopolitics is commonly framed as a dual struggle between the established superpower, the United States, and the ascending power, China, vying for influence in the region. This narrative often overlooks the agency of smaller nations and oversimplifies the complex dynamics. One significant player frequently omitted from this narrative is Japan, a wealthy nation with strong ties and a pivotal role in shaping the geopolitical landscape.

For many countries in Southeast Asia, Japan serves as a crucial counterbalance to the influence of larger powers. Japan provides vital resources such as capital, technology, and aid to these nations. Over the past decade, Japanese foreign direct investment in ASEAN countries reached $198 billion, surpassing China’s $106 billion and trailing slightly behind the United States’ $209 billion. Japanese companies actively seek opportunities in Southeast Asia’s expanding markets, and policymakers view the region as a strategic buffer against Chinese expansionism. Japan’s consistent engagement, including mediating regional conflicts and contributing to the development of regional institutions, has garnered substantial trust. According to a survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, Japan is considered the most trusted external partner in the region.

This trust will be on full display in Tokyo from December 16th to 18th, where Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio will host leaders from nine ASEAN members and Timor Leste. This gathering commemorates the 50th anniversary of dialogues between Japan and ASEAN, signifying an opportune moment to recalibrate the relationship amidst shifting power dynamics, growing competition for influence, and heightened security concerns.

The close ties between Japan and Southeast Asia weren’t always a given. Imperial Japan’s actions caused death and destruction in the region, leading to post-war tensions. However, Japan’s post-war leaders, such as Prime Minister Fukuda Takeo, advocated for equal partnerships based on genuine connections. This philosophy, known as the “Fukuda Doctrine,” characterized Japan’s approach to Southeast Asia. The courteous and diplomatic nature of Japanese diplomacy contrasts with the sometimes preachy or assertive approaches of the United States and China.

Japan’s consistent and long-term investment, both private and through institutions like the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), has played a crucial role in fostering goodwill. The Manila-based Asian Development Bank, in which Japan is the largest shareholder, significantly contributes to regional development. Japan’s involvement in major regional trade deals, such as the CPTPP and RCEP, further solidifies its influence. Additionally, Japanese soft power, from anime to culinary delights like ramen, has created a positive image of Japan in Southeast Asia.

However, as Southeast Asia’s economic strength grows, the dynamics of the relationship are evolving. The combined GDP of ASEAN members, which was 30% of Japan’s in 2000, has risen to 72% by 2022. Japan is no longer the sole aid provider, facing competition from South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia. China has surpassed Japan in trade with ASEAN countries, and Japanese companies are viewed as more cautious compared to their profit-centric Chinese counterparts.

China’s ascent has prompted Japan to take a more proactive role in regional security. Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s tenure saw Japan relaxing legal constraints on its armed forces, and defense collaborations with several ASEAN nations have been initiated. Japan’s security officials view capacity-building in Southeast Asia as a strategic move to counterbalance China’s assertiveness in the broader Indo-Pacific region.

This shift indicates a future where security ties between Japan and Southeast Asian nations concerned about Chinese expansionism will deepen. Recent diplomatic initiatives, such as talks on a defense collaboration pact with the Philippines and elevating Japan to a top-tier diplomatic partner for Vietnam, underscore the evolving nature of Japan’s engagement in the region. While Japan’s outreach will continue to include cultural and economic elements, a more robust and security-focused approach is emerging in response to changing geopolitical realities.