T Vampugani JPMorgan Chase & Co. has released its oil price forecast for 2025, predicting that Brent crude oil will average $73 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will average $64 per barrel. The bank expects oil prices to decline further in 2026, with Brent crude averaging $61 per barrel and WTI averaging $57 per barrel.
The bank’s forecast is based on an anticipated global oil surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2025. This projected surplus, coupled with decelerating global oil demand growth from 1.3 mbd in 2024 to 1.1 mbd in 2025, is expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices.
While China has been the primary driver of global oil demand growth in recent years, JPMorgan anticipates that India will take the lead in 2026. This shift in demand dynamics, combined with potential increases in U.S. oil production and geopolitical factors, could further contribute to lower oil prices.
JPMorgan highlights the potential impact of geopolitical factors, such as potential actions against Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, which could lead to supply disruptions and upward pressure on oil prices. However, the bank believes that the overall trend is likely to be downward, driven by increasing supply and moderating demand growth.
It is important to note that oil price forecasts are subject to numerous variables, including economic growth, geopolitical events, and technological advancements. While JPMorgan’s outlook provides valuable insights, it is essential to consider other factors that could influence the trajectory of oil prices in the coming years.
