Wall Street Speculates on Which Major Central Bank Will Act First

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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) are poised to take divergent paths in their monetary policy decisions in the coming months, according to analysts.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to initiate its first rate cut in June, with market expectations leaning toward a 25 basis point reduction. However, Fed officials have expressed caution about the pace of rate cuts, citing a general downward trend in inflation.

Similarly, the European Central Bank is projected to commence rate cuts in June amid easing inflation and sluggish economic growth in the eurozone.

Conversely, the Bank of England is expected to delay rate cuts, with economists forecasting a potential first cut in August. Goldman Sachs has revised its projections for rate cuts from May to June, anticipating a series of five 25-basis point cuts by the end of the year.

The Swiss National Bank is anticipated to be the first among G10 central banks to cut rates, with a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in March. This decision is prompted by a decline in Swiss headline inflation and core inflation, suggesting an undershoot of the SNB’s forecast.

The Bank of Japan, however, faces a different scenario. Analysts believe that the BOJ may terminate its negative interest rate and yield curve control policies in April, marking a significant shift in its monetary policy stance. Despite above-target inflation for nearly two years, the BOJ has been cautious about tightening its policy due to concerns about its impact on Japan’s fragile economy.

While maintaining loose monetary policy weakens the yen and contributes to inflation, the BOJ is wary of the risks associated with prematurely hiking rates. The market anticipates cautious rate hikes by the BOJ, aligning with other central banks’ rate-cutting measures and diminishing interest rate differentials.

In summary, the BOJ and SNB are expected to make policy decisions that reflect their respective economic conditions and objectives, with the BOJ potentially moving away from negative interest rates while the SNB considers rate cuts to address inflationary concerns.